In Arizona, a 5.3-kW system for an average home costs about $10,933 after incentives in 2026, saves about $951 in the first year and pays back in 10.8 years.
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Solar, 5.28 kW × $2.26/W | $11,933 |
| Federal credit (0%) | $0 |
| State incentive | −$1,000 |
| Net cost | $10,933 |
| Scenario | Net cost | Year-1 savings | Payback | 25-yr net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State averages (above) | $10,933 | $951 | 10.8 yr | $17,457 |
| Rates rise 5.6%/yr (2020–25 pace) | $10,933 | $951 | 10 yr | $25,303 |
| Rates stay flat | $10,933 | $951 | 11.8 yr | $11,459 |
| Survey price $3.1/W (LBNL) | $15,368 | $951 | 14.7 yr | $13,022 |
| Add 13.5-kWh battery | $24,689 | $1,294 | 15.7 yr | $20,089 |
| Size to 100% of use instead | $15,905 | $1,347 | 11 yr | $24,314 |
Verdict: at average Arizona numbers, solar is a solid investment in 2026 — payback takes 10.8 years, leaving you $17,457 ahead after 25 years. The main reasons: strong sun (the 2nd-best yield of 51); export credits below retail (net billing, exports earn 6.857¢/kWh), so only the solar you use yourself earns full value; a state incentive worth about $1,000. Pay cash if you can: Berkeley Lab found loan-financed systems priced about $1.50/W above cash installs in 2025, which can add years to the payback.
Net metering and exports in Arizona: No net metering for new customers: net billing at Resource Comparison Proxy export rate locked up to 10 years; APS ~6.857¢/kWh, TEP 5.70¢, UniSource 6.80¢; rate can drop max 10%/yr, new rates each Oct 1; TOU plan required. SRP (not ACC-regulated) uses its own plans with demand charges.
Battery: a 13.5-kWh battery at the Arizona average of $1,019/kWh adds $13,757 and shifts about 4,435 kWh a year from low-paid exports to your own use; payback becomes 15.7 years.
EnergySage's Arizona page lists a 12.9-year payback. Its method is not fully published; ours uses EIA's Jan–Aug 2026 price, 40% self-use and the state's export credit, 3%/yr rate growth and 0.5%/yr panel aging, with no federal credit.
The full method, material data and tips are on the main solar payback calculator page.