In Michigan, a 4.4-kW system for an average home costs about $12,672 after incentives in 2026, saves about $883 in the first year and pays back in 12.4 years.
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Solar, 4.4 kW × $2.88/W | $12,672 |
| Federal credit (0%) | $0 |
| Net cost | $12,672 |
| Scenario | Net cost | Year-1 savings | Payback | 25-yr net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State averages (above) | $12,672 | $883 | 12.4 yr | $17,446 |
| Rates rise 5.6%/yr (2020–25 pace) | $12,672 | $883 | 11.1 yr | $29,622 |
| Rates stay flat | $12,672 | $883 | 14.8 yr | $8,139 |
| Survey price $3.6/W (LBNL) | $15,840 | $883 | 15 yr | $14,278 |
| Add 13.5-kWh battery | $31,086 | $1,186 | 20.4 yr | $9,359 |
| Size to 100% of use instead | $17,741 | $1,237 | 12.4 yr | $24,425 |
Verdict: at average Michigan numbers, solar is a marginal investment in 2026 — payback takes 12.4 years, leaving you $17,446 ahead after 25 years. The main reasons: export credits below retail (exports earn ~50% of retail), so only the solar you use yourself earns full value. Get at least three quotes: every $0.25/W you shave off the price moves payback by roughly a year or more here.
Net metering and exports in Michigan: Distributed Generation (inflow/outflow) net billing, not true net metering; exports earn ~half retail (e.g., ~6¢/kWh at Great Lakes Energy co-op).
Battery: a 13.5-kWh battery at the Michigan average of $1,364/kWh adds $18,414 and shifts about 3,136 kWh a year from low-paid exports to your own use; payback becomes 20.4 years.
EnergySage's Michigan page lists a 14.7-year payback. Its method is not fully published; ours uses EIA's Jan–Aug 2026 price, 40% self-use and the state's export credit, 3%/yr rate growth and 0.5%/yr panel aging, with no federal credit.
The full method, material data and tips are on the main solar payback calculator page.