In Vermont, a 6.2-kW system for an average home costs about $17,125 after incentives in 2026, saves about $1,697 in the first year and pays back in 9 years.
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Solar, 6.16 kW × $2.78/W | $17,125 |
| Federal credit (0%) | $0 |
| Net cost | $17,125 |
| Scenario | Net cost | Year-1 savings | Payback | 25-yr net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State averages (above) | $17,125 | $1,697 | 9 yr | $42,526 |
| Rates rise 5.6%/yr (2020–25 pace) | $17,125 | $1,697 | 8.2 yr | $66,730 |
| Rates stay flat | $17,125 | $1,697 | 10.1 yr | $24,029 |
| Survey price $3.6/W (LBNL) | $22,176 | $1,697 | 11.2 yr | $37,475 |
| Add 13.5-kWh battery | $32,623 | $1,697 | 15.6 yr | $27,028 |
| Exports cut to 50% of retail | $12,232 | $879 | 12.1 yr | $17,719 |
Verdict: at average Vermont numbers, solar is a solid investment in 2026 — payback takes 9 years, leaving you $42,526 ahead after 25 years. The main reasons: electricity that costs more than in all but 11 states; weak sun (the 4th-lowest yield of 51); 1:1 net metering, which credits every exported kWh at the full retail price. Pay cash if you can: Berkeley Lab found loan-financed systems priced about $1.50/W above cash installs in 2025, which can add years to the payback.
Net metering and exports in Vermont: Net metering at blended residential rate $0.18398/kWh.
Battery: a 13.5-kWh battery at the Vermont average of $1,148/kWh adds $15,498 and saves almost nothing extra under 1:1 net metering — buy it for backup, not payback; payback becomes 15.6 years.
EnergySage's Vermont page lists a 13.3-year payback. Its method is not fully published; ours uses EIA's Jan–Aug 2026 price, 1:1 net metering, 3%/yr rate growth and 0.5%/yr panel aging, with no federal credit.
The full method, material data and tips are on the main solar payback calculator page.