In Arkansas, a 7-kW system for an average home costs about $16,755 after incentives in 2026, saves about $883 in the first year and pays back in 15.7 years.
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Solar, 7.04 kW × $2.38/W | $16,755 |
| Federal credit (0%) | $0 |
| Net cost | $16,755 |
| Scenario | Net cost | Year-1 savings | Payback | 25-yr net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State averages (above) | $16,755 | $883 | 15.7 yr | $13,337 |
| Rates rise 5.6%/yr (2020–25 pace) | $16,755 | $883 | 13.7 yr | $25,503 |
| Rates stay flat | $16,755 | $883 | 19.9 yr | $4,038 |
| Survey price $3.6/W (LBNL) | $25,344 | $883 | 21.9 yr | $4,748 |
| Add 13.5-kWh battery | $27,029 | $1,187 | 18.1 yr | $14,172 |
| Size to 100% of use instead | $23,038 | $1,214 | 15.7 yr | $18,339 |
Verdict: at average Arkansas numbers, solar is a marginal investment in 2026 — payback takes 15.7 years, leaving you $13,337 ahead after 25 years. The main reasons: cheap power (the 7th-lowest price of 51), which caps what each kWh saves; export credits below retail (exports earn ~45% of retail), so only the solar you use yourself earns full value. Get at least three quotes: every $0.25/W you shave off the price moves payback by roughly a year or more here.
Net metering and exports in Arkansas: Net billing since end of 2024: exports at avoided cost (a little under half retail); systems installed by 2024-09-30 grandfathered 20 yrs.
Battery: a 13.5-kWh battery at the Arkansas average of $761/kWh adds $10,274 and shifts about 4,435 kWh a year from low-paid exports to your own use; payback becomes 18.1 years.
EnergySage's Arkansas page lists a 15.3-year payback. Its method is not fully published; ours uses EIA's Jan–Aug 2026 price, 40% self-use and the state's export credit, 3%/yr rate growth and 0.5%/yr panel aging, with no federal credit.
The full method, material data and tips are on the main solar payback calculator page.