In North Carolina, a 6.2-kW system for an average home costs about $15,092 after incentives in 2026, saves about $835 in the first year and pays back in 15 years.
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Solar, 6.16 kW × $2.45/W | $15,092 |
| Federal credit (0%) | $0 |
| Net cost | $15,092 |
| Scenario | Net cost | Year-1 savings | Payback | 25-yr net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State averages (above) | $15,092 | $835 | 15 yr | $13,675 |
| Rates rise 5.6%/yr (2020–25 pace) | $15,092 | $835 | 13.1 yr | $25,633 |
| Rates stay flat | $15,092 | $835 | 18.9 yr | $4,533 |
| Survey price $4.1/W (LBNL) | $25,256 | $835 | 22.7 yr | $3,511 |
| Add 13.5-kWh battery | $31,846 | $1,188 | 20.4 yr | $9,690 |
| Size to 100% of use instead | $21,560 | $1,193 | 15 yr | $19,535 |
Verdict: at average North Carolina numbers, solar is a marginal investment in 2026 — payback takes 15 years, leaving you $13,675 ahead after 25 years. The main reasons: export credits below retail (exports earn ~42% of retail), so only the solar you use yourself earns full value. Get at least three quotes: every $0.25/W you shave off the price moves payback by roughly a year or more here.
Net metering and exports in North Carolina: Duke Energy: new customers on Residential Solar Choice (TOU export credits, ~30-40% less savings than legacy NEM) or Net Metering Bridge Rate (15 years, capped) through 2027; minimum bill $22 (DEC) / $28 (DEP) plus non-bypassable $0.44 / $0.36 per kW-month.
Battery: a 13.5-kWh battery at the North Carolina average of $1,241/kWh adds $16,754 and shifts about 4,435 kWh a year from low-paid exports to your own use; payback becomes 20.4 years.
EnergySage's North Carolina page lists a 15.7-year payback. Its method is not fully published; ours uses EIA's Jan–Aug 2026 price, 40% self-use and the state's export credit, 3%/yr rate growth and 0.5%/yr panel aging, with no federal credit.
The full method, material data and tips are on the main solar payback calculator page.