In Texas, a 6.6-kW system for an average home costs about $14,850 after incentives in 2026, saves about $1,052 in the first year and pays back in 12.2 years.
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Solar, 6.6 kW × $2.25/W | $14,850 |
| Federal credit (0%) | $0 |
| Net cost | $14,850 |
| Scenario | Net cost | Year-1 savings | Payback | 25-yr net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State averages (above) | $14,850 | $1,052 | 12.2 yr | $21,027 |
| Rates rise 5.6%/yr (2020–25 pace) | $14,850 | $1,052 | 10.9 yr | $35,531 |
| Rates stay flat | $14,850 | $1,052 | 14.6 yr | $9,940 |
| Survey price $4/W (LBNL) | $26,400 | $1,052 | 19.7 yr | $9,477 |
| Add 13.5-kWh battery | $29,147 | $1,368 | 17.2 yr | $18,250 |
| Size to 100% of use instead | $21,780 | $1,543 | 12.2 yr | $30,840 |
Verdict: at average Texas numbers, solar is a marginal investment in 2026 — payback takes 12.2 years, leaving you $21,027 ahead after 25 years. The main reasons: export credits below retail (exports earn ~50% of retail), so only the solar you use yourself earns full value. Get at least three quotes: every $0.25/W you shave off the price moves payback by roughly a year or more here.
Net metering and exports in Texas: No statewide net metering mandate; utilities/retail electric providers offer voluntary buyback plans (terms vary). Austin Energy Value of Solar 9.91¢/kWh; CPS Energy retail-rate netting with excess at wholesale.
Battery: a 13.5-kWh battery at the Texas average of $1,059/kWh adds $14,297 and shifts about 4,435 kWh a year from low-paid exports to your own use; payback becomes 17.2 years.
EnergySage's Texas page lists a 12.8-year payback. Its method is not fully published; ours uses EIA's Jan–Aug 2026 price, 40% self-use and the state's export credit, 3%/yr rate growth and 0.5%/yr panel aging, with no federal credit.
The full method, material data and tips are on the main solar payback calculator page.