In Virginia, a 9.2-kW system for an average home costs about $23,562 after incentives in 2026, saves about $2,184 in the first year and pays back in 9.6 years.
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Solar, 9.24 kW × $2.55/W | $23,562 |
| Federal credit (0%) | $0 |
| Net cost | $23,562 |
| Scenario | Net cost | Year-1 savings | Payback | 25-yr net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State averages (above) | $23,562 | $2,184 | 9.6 yr | $52,447 |
| Rates rise 5.6%/yr (2020–25 pace) | $23,562 | $2,184 | 8.7 yr | $83,364 |
| Rates stay flat | $23,562 | $2,184 | 10.9 yr | $28,819 |
| Survey price $3.6/W (LBNL) | $33,264 | $2,184 | 12.9 yr | $42,745 |
| Add 13.5-kWh battery | $39,897 | $2,184 | 15 yr | $36,112 |
| Exports cut to 50% of retail | $16,830 | $1,110 | 13 yr | $21,126 |
Verdict: at average Virginia numbers, solar is a solid investment in 2026 — payback takes 9.6 years, leaving you $52,447 ahead after 25 years. The main reasons: 1:1 net metering, which credits every exported kWh at the full retail price. Pay cash if you can: Berkeley Lab found loan-financed systems priced about $1.50/W above cash installs in 2025, which can add years to the payback.
Net metering and exports in Virginia: Dominion & Appalachian Power 1:1 retail net metering (<25 kW). SCC 2026-04-30 Dominion order kept 1:1 credit; new customers pay $1/month and year-end surplus paid $0.05829/kWh.
Battery: a 13.5-kWh battery at the Virginia average of $1,210/kWh adds $16,335 and saves almost nothing extra under 1:1 net metering — buy it for backup, not payback; payback becomes 15 years.
EnergySage's Virginia page lists a 11.7-year payback. Its method is not fully published; ours uses EIA's Jan–Aug 2026 price, 1:1 net metering, 3%/yr rate growth and 0.5%/yr panel aging, with no federal credit.
The full method, material data and tips are on the main solar payback calculator page.